Cardano (ADA) has experienced a massive outflow of holders in preparation for the Chang hard fork

Cardano (ADA) is preparing for a significant upgrade, which is generating a mix of responses from its community. Large holders of ADA are taking measures that might impact the cryptocurrency’s price.

Decrease in Large Holders' Inflow

Data from IntoTheBlock reveals a 99.79% decrease in Cardano’s Large Holders Inflow. This metric tracks the movement of funds into addresses owned by substantial investors.

A spike indicates strong buying activity, potentially reversing a correction. Conversely, the current decline suggests that major investors are divesting their holdings.

This drop could indicate decreasing confidence in ADA or portfolio rebalancing ahead of a possible altcoin season.

Cardano Large Holders. Source:IntoTheBlock

Upcoming Chang Hard Fork

The upcoming Chang hard fork, expected to complete by the end of July, may be influencing investor behavior. A hard fork represents a significant change in a blockchain's protocol. Cardano’s last major upgrade in 2021 saw ADA’s price increase from $1.35 to $3.10 within a month. Some holders might be anticipating a similar price surge.

Market Sentiment and Price Potential

On-chain data indicates a growing optimism among market participants, despite a currently negative Weighted Sentiment rating. A shift to a positive sentiment could boost demand for ADA and support its price above $0.40.

Cardano Weighted Sentiment. Source:Santiment

Technical Analysis and Price Prediction

• Falling Wedge Pattern: ADA’s price traded within a falling wedge pattern from March to June, breaking out on July 6, and climbing to $0.45. The price has since been range-bound between $0.40 and $0.45.
• Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): Currently rising, indicating accumulation and potential buying pressure.
• Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): Positive momentum suggests a potential upswing. Improved momentum could push ADA’s price to $0.43 and possibly $0.47.

Cardano Daily Analysis. Source:TradingView

Conclusion

The upcoming Chang hard fork and the current market sentiment suggest potential for ADA's price to rise, despite the recent exodus of large holders. The technical indicators support a bullish outlook, indicating that ADA could experience a price increase in the near term.