作者：Eric SJ，独立研究员 来源：X，@sjbtc9
这篇Vitalik的观点中简单聊了一下当前L2的格局，我发现虽然 Taiko 在社区当中的口碑不怎么样，但却是被他点名了几回了
而基于这篇文章所描述的现象，让我想到L2最终的格局可能不是之前设想的那样由主要的几条L2占据主导，而是迈向整体均衡化
因此随着新L2的不断推出，对于生态市场的多元化当然有所助益，但这种阶段对二级市场投资者来说其实也许不是一个多么合适的赛道
为什么呢，其实就一句话：“别和政策对着干”
举2个例子来说
1.流动性质押赛道就有着33%的“政策红线”，这其实不光是和个人意志有关系，还和是否去中心化的论调有关，因此流动性质押的业务规模天花板其实是有限的
(而作为业务承接的下游赛道，就没有这一红线限制)
2.而DEX这个赛道作为每条链基础的业务赛道，也是一个处于充分竞争的竞争格局，据不完全统计下的DEX就有1300多个，可以说是行业第一大内卷化的赛道
(可以试想一下在二级市场我们在这种板块中可选择上的容错率其实挺低的)
那L2其实具备着上面的两个赛道特征
（1）大基本盘的指导思想——多元化
（2）数量多，充分竞争
我们很难否认，以太目前的一些发展方向就是比较受个人或某主体的意志所影响的，因此多Rollup的格局可以说是一种大几率的趋势
通过不断的拓展执行层，这样可以让以太主链更好的扮演共识(安全)层的角色
未来就形成了一种以以太主网共识为独立核心的多Rollup生态谱系，包括现在原先链上的应用也开始逐渐有向应用Rollup发展的趋势了(近日ENS就有拓展至L2的提案)
目前L2未上线和已上线的加一块将近200条，但市场的流动性暂时是固定的：那车流固定的情况情况下，车道在不断扩散，车流可选择的空间就变得非常的多了
因此基于上述逻辑去做推导，在Rollup构建的上游，可能会成为这轮周期L2竞争的下半场
例如OP的超级链框架以及ALT的模块化Rollup构建都属于这个范畴（ARB的Orbit计划是面向L3的，不太属于该范畴）
随着上游方案的完善，未来这些各种个性化rollup的推出，其实都符合Vitalik所描述的L2生态谱系的的多元化补充
因此对于一些新兴Rollup来说，已经不能完全的从基础设施所能解决的差异化需求去考虑是否值得参与了，还需要考虑该Rollup在同质化的竞争下是否有可以破局的竞争能力
例如特定的应用Rollup，估值的逻辑就应该从应用业务端出发，而还只是执行层逻辑的基础Rollup，就真的要多思考市场份额的竞争问题
附图：ETH L2的前十TVL分布情况，其实已经初步展现了这种均衡的多元化现象了
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