作者：Biraajmaan Tamuly，CoinTelegraph；编译：五铢，金色财经
BTC 的日线图连续三天看跌，因为 1 月 9 日，这一最大的加密资产跌至近 92,000 美元。1 月 9 日，美国司法部 (DOJ) 批准出售价值超过 65 亿美元的 69,000 BTC，现货比特币 ETF 出现第二高净流出，达到 5.691 亿美元，投资者的总体情绪进一步受到抑制。
随着“比特币牛市结束了吗？”之类的问题开始在 X 上出现，一位分析师表示，对 BTC 的看涨乐观情绪应该会保持不变。
比特币最近的下跌主要受到美联储降息的不确定性以及投资者在当选总统特朗普就职典礼前采取谨慎态度的影响。链上数据清楚地凸显了这种情绪，因为接受者买入/卖出比率的 30 天移动平均线自 2024 年 3 月（当时 BTC 达到约 74,000 美元的峰值）以来首次表明卖方占主导地位。
比特币接受者买入/卖出比率。资料来源：CryptoQuant
比特币的短期支出产出利润率 (SOPR) 也跌破 1，这意味着短期投资者正在低价抛售。然而，匿名加密货币分析师 Avocado onchain 表示，这些变化是 BTC 短期波动的一部分，由市场投机而非市场结构的变化引起。这位交易员补充道，
“投资者应保持战略性，避免对短期噪音做出反应，并关注更广泛的看涨轨迹，”
同样，加密货币交易员 Mikybull 指出了一份清单，其中包含当前牛市周期的关键比特币顶级信号。在可能的 30 个市场峰值指标中，包括 Puell 倍数、RSI-22 日、比特币主导地位和 MVRV 比率，在当前周期中没有一个信号被触及。这位交易员说，
“每次下跌都是为即将到来的大规模反弹做准备的机会。”
比特币牛市峰值指标列表。资料来源：CoinGlass
加密货币分析师亚历克斯·克鲁格 (Alex Kruger) 也驳斥了长期看跌的困境，并表示“人们现在太悲观了”。
这位经济学家解释说，虽然“轻松模式”在未来已经结束，但 2025 年将为传统金融注入的流动性尚未得到考虑。
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