Vitalik’s Favourite Web3 Social Media Farcaster’s Daily Activity Falls By 50% – A Case of Hype or Here to Stay?

A Web3 Disruptor or Venture Capital Hype Machine?

Farcaster, a social media platform built on the Ethereum blockchain, has exploded onto the scene, sparking a debate about its legitimacy and future potential.

With 50,000 daily active users, a staggering $1 billion valuation, and the backing of prominent figures like Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, Farcaster is a force to be reckoned with.

But is its success a genuine revolution in social media, or a carefully crafted bubble fueled by venture capital?

What is Farcaster and How Does it Work?

Unlike traditional social media platforms like Facebook or X, Farcaster is decentralised.

This means there's no single entity controlling your data or dictating how you interact with others. Instead, Farcaster leverages blockchain technology to empower users.

They own their data, can freely migrate their profiles and content across different Farcaster applications, and even monetise their content directly.

One of Farcaster's key differentiators is its innovative "Frames" feature. Imagine being able to play a game with friends or purchase an NFT directly within a Farcaster post, without ever leaving the platform.

This fosters a dynamic and interactive experience, encouraging community building around user-generated content.

Additionally, Farcaster invites developers to create applications atop it.

Farcaster adopts a hybrid approach: user identities are stored on-chain, while data such as public posts, follows, and reactions are kept off-chain.

On Farcaster, users are required to pay rent for data storage. This helps prevent spam and keeps the network running smoothly.

Renting storage is simple: you make a payment using cryptocurrency (currently around $7) that lasts for a year.

As of 19 June 2024, these are what you’ll get:

• 5000 Casts
• 2500 Reactions
• 2500 Links
• 50 Profile Data
• 50 Verifications

If you run out of space for a specific type of message, the oldest one gets automatically deleted to make room for the new one.

This lets you keep using Farcaster without needing to pay for more storage right away, while also keeping the network efficient. Of course, you can always buy more storage if you need it.

If you don't renew your storage after it expires, you might lose all your messages! Thankfully, you have a 30-day grace period to top up your storage before everything disappears.

The cost and size of storage units might change over time to keep the network healthy and growing.

You can also choose to delete messages yourself at any time.

This frees up space but leaves a "ghost" of the message behind until it gets pushed out by newer messages.

In short, Farcaster gives you control over your data but requires a bit of planning to keep it safe!

The Buterin Factor and Early Investment

Farcaster's legitimacy received a significant boost when Vitalik Buterin, a heavyweight in the crypto space, became a registered user of the platform's Warpcast app and actively engaged with the community.

He also expressed his preference for Farcaster.

In an interview held during BUIDL Asia 2024, Buterin even called it the “second largest”.

Buterin's preference for Farcaster boils down to usability and functionality.

He finds Farcaster to be a viable alternative for many users, particularly praising its "channels" feature, which he believes enhances the platform compared to X.

Even Elon Musk questioned why he “left” X.

The launch of Frames, interactive mini-app embeds, boosted user engagement and revenue.

Additionally, Farcaster's integration with Solana addresses demonstrates its commitment to wider crypto compatibility.

Vitalik Buterin's Farcaster account, linked to his Ethereum Name Service address vitalik.eth, has amassed close to 326,300 followers.

In contrast, his X account has garnered a substantial following of 5.3 million.

This association signalled to many that Farcaster had the potential to be a game-changer in the Web3 social media landscape.

The project also secured a crucial $30 million investment last year, led by the prominent venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z).

This early backing from a well-respected investor instilled confidence in Farcaster's vision and ability to disrupt the social media status quo.

Soaring Valuation and Questions Arise

Fast forward to today, and Farcaster's valuation has skyrocketed to a phenomenal $1 billion, despite its relatively modest user base of 50,000 daily activities.

This meteoric rise has raised eyebrows among some analysts.

They point out that similar user numbers are observed on established platforms like Discord, raising questions about whether Farcaster's valuation is truly justified.

Venture Capital's Role Under Scrutiny

The recent $150 million fundraising round further fueled the debate.

Some, like tech founder Liron Shapira, suggest that venture capitalists might be playing an outsized role in Farcaster's success.

Shapira points out the potential for inflated management fees for VCs, leading to a valuation bubble rather than organic growth.

From Explosive Growth to Sobering Decline

Farcaster enjoyed a meteoric rise in popularity earlier this year.

It transformed from a platform generating a mere 10,000 posts per day in January to a bustling hub overflowing with over 500,000 daily posts by March.

However, a recent trend suggests a potential cause for concern.

The initial excitement surrounding Frames appears to be fading.

Daily activity on Farcaster has dipped significantly, dropping below 700,000 posts. This translates to a worrying 50% decline from its peak of 1.5 million daily posts witnessed in April.

The decline isn't limited to post volume.

User engagement has also witnessed a sharp drop. The number of reactions to posts has plummeted from a staggering 5.4 million to a mere 1.29 million.

While the number of active users ("casters") remains relatively high, peaking at over 47,500 in late May, it's crucial to consider the potential impact of bots being purged from the platform.

Experts at Dune Analytics suggest a recent change in the Warpcaster algorithm (the main Farcaster client) or adjustments to the DEGEN tipping allocation might be responsible for this bot exodus.

Is Farcaster merely experiencing a post-hype lull, or is this a sign of deeper issues?

The answer remains unclear.

Early projects often witness similar trends – a period of explosive growth followed by a stabilisation of activity and usage.

Moreover, Farcaster's daily activity levels still surpass those of Lens, a major competitor in the decentralised social network space.

However, some argue that Farcaster's relatively crypto-centric user base and its focus on like-minded communities might be creating an "echo chamber" effect.

This lack of diverse viewpoints could be contributing to the decline in user engagement.

The platform's ability to attract and retain users beyond the initial hype surrounding Frames will be a crucial factor in determining its long-term success.

A Token Launch on the Horizon?

With its "permissionless" model attracting developers and fostering a vibrant app ecosystem, Farcaster seems poised for further evolution.

Analysts predict a potential token launch soon, which could incentivise investors and further fuel network activity.

Who’s Behind the Project?

Farcaster's infrastructure is powered by Merkle Manufactory, a company co-founded in 2020 by Dan Romero and Varun Srinivasan, both former executives at Coinbase.

Dan Romero (@dwr)

Romero, co-founder of Farcaster and former Vice President of Operations at Coinbase, is a seasoned leader in the cryptocurrency industry.

Joining Coinbase as its 20th employee in April 2014, he spent over five years overseeing critical functions such as customer support, partnerships, operations, and consumer relations.

Varun Srinivasan (@varunsrin)

Varun Srinivasan, Co-Founder of Farcaster, brings extensive experience in cryptocurrency from his tenure at Coinbase, where he held roles including Senior Director of Platform.

Prior to this, he contributed to audio hardware innovation at SoundFocus (YC S13) and developed productivity tools at Microsoft.

Can Farcaster Survive Long Term?

Farcaster's future hinges on its ability to overcome several challenges. The initial excitement surrounding Frames has waned, leading to a decline in user activity.

Farcaster's user base also skews heavily towards crypto-enthusiasts, potentially creating an echo chamber.

Monetisation through potential token launches and developer-built applications could be key to long-term success.

Coinlive finds Farcaster's annual $5 user fees and minimally $7 storage costs as potential hurdles to long-term adoption.

Ultimately, the majority of cryptocurrency users are accustomed to X.

A Work in Progress

Farcaster's success story is still being written.

While its innovative features and decentralised approach offer a compelling alternative to traditional social media, questions linger about its valuation and the true drivers behind its growth.