According to Cointelegraph, Big Tech companies like Apple and Alphabet, Google's parent company, are anticipated to utilize artificial intelligence (AI) to sustain their industry leadership, as per a white paper released by Cathie Wood’s investment firm ARK Invest on October 1. The document, authored by ARK’s chief futurist Brett Winton, delves into the disruptive potential of AI and outlines a framework for identifying such technologies.
Winton's report highlights how major technology firms are likely to enhance their AI capabilities to maintain their market dominance, while also acknowledging potential pitfalls in these strategies. He identifies three core properties of disruptive technology platforms: significant cost reductions, penetration into new or underserved markets, and business models that delay monetization and may initially appear financially unattractive. These characteristics often enable smaller firms to compete with industry giants, even when the latter recognize the technology’s potential and attempt to leverage it for business gains.
Winton emphasizes that AI is a highly disruptive technology, noting that it has experienced the steepest cost decline curve of any technology in history. He states that the cost to operate AI models with equivalent performance has been halving every four months, a trend expected to continue throughout the decade. This rapid decline in costs is compared to Moore’s Law in the semiconductor industry, which suggests that semiconductor costs halve every 18 to 24 months. Winton asserts that the AI revolution is progressing four to six times faster.
The report also discusses how incumbent tech companies often allow startups to de-risk new technologies before adopting them on a larger scale. Winton points out that Google and Apple have taken this approach with AI. For instance, Google did not publicly release a large language model until OpenAI had been in the market for over three years. Despite marketing efforts, Google’s performance lagged behind OpenAI, with the most advanced Google model costing customers over 40% more in per-unit performance compared to OpenAI’s model.
While Google has trailed OpenAI, Apple has yet to launch a large language model. Winton anticipates that Apple will introduce its first modern AI-driven products in the fall of 2024. He notes that a slower approach does not necessarily mean a competitor will lose the race, as companies like Google and Apple have valid reasons for delaying AI features. One reason is the risk associated with releasing a product that performs unpredictably, which can be concerning for companies with carefully developed reputations. However, Winton questions whether this cautious approach will enable Big Tech firms to introduce widely performant AI systems, concluding that incumbents may prefer less disruptive technologies, potentially to their detriment.
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