US Election Uncertainty and Market Expectations

According to PANews, Greeks.live macro analyst Adam noted on the X platform that there has been a noticeable decrease in statements from Federal Reserve officials this week. Additionally, the IMF-World Bank annual meetings are worth noting. However, market expectations for the next interest rate cut are relatively unified, limiting the impact of this information on the market. As the US election approaches, Polymarket shows that Trump's support rate is as high as 60%. Given the current progress, Harris's chances of winning are diminishing in the coming days. However, the election remains highly uncertain, and the implied volatility (IV) of election cycle options remains relatively strong. The cryptocurrency market has quietly returned to around $70,000 in October, after multiple failed attempts to reach new highs this year. It remains to be seen whether the upcoming US election will provide an opportunity for a breakthrough. Currently, the main term IV for Bitcoin is at a moderate level, stabilizing at 55% before and after the election. In the crypto interest rate market, Bitfinex's interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, with occasional high-interest orders reaching 20%.