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8图解读比特币复苏的基本面原因
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作者：比特客，来源：Bitkoala考拉财经
11月9日晚间，比特币强势反弹，势如破竹地冲破35000美元阻力位并一度触及3.8万美元高点，其市值也超越了特斯拉并紧逼巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司，跻身全球前十大市值资产或许只是时间问题了。
加密社区好奇为何比特币会“突然”强制反弹，当然，区块奖励减半、以及比特币现货ETF的潜在批准等都是可能的推动因素，本文将从基本面的角度，用深度分析告诉大家为何比特币复苏并非“一时兴起”。
首先，比特币的非原生链上资产总规模已经达到1250亿美元。也就是说，在“其他区块链”上的BTC价值（包括WBTC、其他跨链封装比特币等）已达到相当规模，这对于比特币的基本面发展是一个有力支撑。
分析发现，当前跨链BTC已经由多个Layer 1区块链主导，比如以太坊、波场和Binance Chain，另外还有不到2%的比特币在侧链上，比如Rootstock、Stacks、Interlay、以及Blocksteam Liquid。
现阶段，以太坊区块链上的WrappedBTC在比特币跨链领域处于领先地位，当前已存入约16.3万枚BTC，紧随其后的是波场区块链，当前存入月113,110枚BYC。但需要注意的是，当前桥接BTC中只有不到1%使用的是完全去中心化桥或半去中心化桥……这意味着99%的比特币跨链桥都是中心化的，比如renBTC、solBTC、multiBTC、harmonyBTC。
现阶段有两种去中心化桥接模式，一种是“数据安全型”，另一种则是“经济安全型”——
前者允许任何人通过质押一些代币来获得桥接比特币，只要大多数签名者是诚实的，桥梁就可以发挥作用，这里比较典型的例子是THORchain、以太坊上tBTC、波卡上的Interlay、以及Cardano区块链上的anetaBTC等；
后者则需要桥接服务提供商锁定抵押品，如果抵押品丢失，运营服务商则需要向用户赔偿，一般来说抵押品价值要高于桥接BTC价值，这里的典型示例就是MakerDAO。
接下来，让我们来看看影响比特币基本面的另一应用，DeFi！
实际上，在DeFi领域比特币主要用作为抵押品，比如以太坊区块链上约5.7万枚WBTC中93%部署在MakerDAO、Compound Finance和AAVE这些DeFi协议上。
当然，有一个事实不得不说，对于当前市值约7500亿美元的比特币而言，其实只有约1.7%被部署在跨链上，而且这些比特币也不是全部都用于DeFi，不过对于比特币这个正在沉睡的“加密货币巨人”来说，现在已经开始慢慢醒来……
我们发现，自从Ordinals铭文协议推出以来，比特币处理交易创新最高记录。
另据Dune Analytics最新数据显示，当前Ordinals比特币铭文铸造总量已经突破3800万枚，产生的交易费用超过2315 BTC，按照当前价格计算逾8500万美元。
总结
从上述基本面分析，当前比特币似乎已经具备牛市启动条件，但要注意的是，所谓牛市行情不会一蹴而就。当然，如今美元指数、失业率和美债利率的走势表明宏观环境对加密市场将会更有利，但市场过热必然带来调整，这也是不言而喻的。
其他一些潜在的风险同样需要考虑，例如，全球经济形势仍然存在不确定性，这可能会对加密货币市场产生负面影响，监管机构对加密货币的态度仍然存在不确定性，这也可能会影响市场走势。因此市场仍需密切关注全球经济形势和监管机构的态度，以评估加密货币市场的长期前景。
无论如何，比特币正在朝4万美元发起“新一轮进攻”，从技术角度来看，这是一个积极的信号，表明比特币可能正在从最近的熊市中反弹。
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