A brief discussion on Bitcoin’s “halving” in 2024

The "halving" is what makes Bitcoin truly unique in the world of financial assets. No other product has a fully calculable production schedule like it, allowing the public to prepare in advance for the event of its production capacity being halved.

The "halving" in 2020 has left an indelible mark on the Bitcoin mining industry, and this time in 2024 will undoubtedly bring significant changes. The change. In order to avoid its possible impact as much as possible, we analyzed the core indicators of Bitcoin mining (including computing power, difficulty and computing power price) as well as the Bitcoin mining business (mining machine prices, hosting rates) by analyzing the halving. and other considerations) (can be downloaded here: https://hashrateindex.com/blog/content/files/2024/03/2024-Bitcoin-Halving-Report-Final.pdf) .

Based on the analysis, the following key points are provided here:

1. The fourth Bitcoin The halving will occur on April 19, 2024 at approximately 13:30 UTC.

2. If the current currency price continues to maintain or moderately increases, it is expected that about 3%-7% of Bitcoin’s computing power may go offline after the halving. Miners will see these approximate percentage reductions in subsequent difficulty adjustments.

3. If the currency price drops from the current level to about $48,000, it is expected that about 16% of Bitcoin’s computing power will be offline by the end of the year. The force will be between 639EH/s-674 EH/s.

As pointed out in this report, it is believed that the halving in 2024 will be very different from the past. The current Bitcoin bull market, coupled with the surge in transaction fees due to inscription and ordinal activities, provides an opportunity for many miners to remain motivated after the block reward drops to 3.125 BTC. If the price of Bitcoin holds or increases, a small portion of the computing power may go offline. If current trends continue, expect to see slow growth in hashrate over the next year, as compressed profit margins - caused by a slow but steady increase in difficulty - will determine how much hashrate can continue to stay online and profit.

Finally, although the halving may not have as great an impact on miners as previously thought, the profit margin after the event will still become very limited. . Therefore, miners should try to improve their mining efficiency as much as possible, whether through firmware updates or mining equipment updates, or by implementing hedging methods against mining returns, electricity price risks, and Bitcoin volatility.