Author: Stephen McBride, Chief Analyst at Riskhedge Source: Medium Translation: Shan Ouba, Golden Finance
We are already halfway through 2024, and what a great year it has been for cryptocurrencies.
First, the Bitcoin ETF launched in January…
Then, the long-awaited fourth Bitcoin halving in April…
Soon, the newly approved Ethereum ETF will begin trading…
Today, I want to answer another important question on investors’ minds: Where are we in the Bitcoin cycle?
BTC and ETH are up 52% and 48% this year, respectively.
Since the beginning of 2023, Bitcoin has surged around 300% and Ethereum has risen around 200%:
It’s been a great ride, but is it coming to an end? The answer is no.
In short: my research suggests that we are only approximately halfway through this bull cycle.
Let me explain. First…
The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred on April 19th. I wrote a lot about it before then.
Why?
Because this scheduled event — which automatically cuts the new Bitcoin supply in half — creates a predictable upward cycle every time it occurs.
Cryptocurrency prices typically bottom 12 to 18 months before a Bitcoin halving. They then rise at the halving… and even faster in the year after the halving.
BTC rose 8,000% after the first halving… and almost 30x in the year after the second halving… and the most recent halving four years ago brought another 6x gain.
Bitcoin is following the script in this cycle. The price bottomed 17 months before the halving and is now up over 300% from that low.
BTC has only risen slightly since the most recent halving, but that’s nothing to worry about. We are in the window where the biggest price gains typically occur.
Analyzing the crypto market through the lens of Bitcoin’s halving suggests that we are in the fourth or fifth inning of this bull market.
You can see that the current cycle (black line) is similar to the previous two market cycles:
Everything that happens on the blockchain is transparent and public. On-chain analytics allow us to see what’s actually happening in the crypto markets in real time.
All of the on-chain metrics I follow tell the same story: The crypto bull run has 12 to 18 months left.
Although we are roughly halfway through the cycle in terms of time, studying past bull runs shows that the majority of profits are made in the second half.
About 80% of profits are made in the last 20% of the cycle.
It won’t be a straight road up. Remember: Crypto is the most volatile asset in the world. No other asset can compare. But as I tell my RiskHedge Venture subscribers, “We’re still early. The best is yet to come.”
Don’t lose sight of the big picture.
I’ve always said that I believe BTC will reach at least $150,000 this cycle. That’s about a 120% gain from now.
I think ETH, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, will do even better.
But my favorite way to participate in this crypto bull run is to invest in the lesser-known crypto businesses that are making money.
Bitcoin is gradually entering the late stage of the bull market. Many indicators show that there is still significant room for growth after short-term consolidation, and the target price may be between US$150,000 and US$200,000.
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