作者：Yashu Gola，CoinTelegraph；编译：白水，金色财经
2024 年迄今为止，BTC 的价格已上涨 55%，其中 10 月份上涨了 12.50%。好于预期的华尔街盈利带动风险情绪整体改善，推动了该股近期的上涨。
BTC/USD 每日价格图表。来源：TradingView
此外，投资者越来越多地考虑美联储 11 月降息的可能性，支持加密货币的唐纳德·特朗普赢得 2024 年总统大选的可能性不断上升，进一步增强了乐观情绪。
从根本上说，比特币似乎处于有利位置，可以在 2024 年剩余时间及以后进入牛市周期。与此同时，某些技术和链上指标也显示出类似的上行前景。
比特币进入新牛市周期的第一个迹象来自其两个月的对数图表，独立市场分析师 Coosh Alemzadeh 在 X 上分享了该图表。
该图表标志着比特币的历史看涨阶段，例如自 2011 年左右增长 60 倍，2017 年增长 20 倍，以及 2020-2021 年牛市期间增长 6 倍。
这些阶段遵循这样的模式：比特币的价格首先盘整，然后发生大幅、几乎垂直的上涨。
BTC/美元两个月价格图表。资料来源：库什·阿莱姆扎德
截至 2024 年 10 月，比特币显示出突破其长期盘整阶段的迹象，这通常标志着以两条红色虚线标记的抛物线通道内牛市的开始。
市场分析师 Ted Pillows 呼应了这种观点，强调了比特币整合通道的类似突破。
比特币/美元每周价格图表。资料来源：Ted Pillows
他认为，比特币的“抛物线阶段”已经开始，与价格快速加速的历史模式一致。
Alemzadeh 的分析预测，比特币将在 2025 年升至 10 万美元以上，长期将升至 25 万美元。
比特币的另一个看涨信号来自其跟踪现货交易所鲸鱼活动的链上数据。
以 30 天移动平均线为代表的“交易所鲸鱼比率”目前反映了 2020 年崩盘后最后观察到的模式。在这种情况下，鲸鱼们积极积累比特币，随后出现大规模牛市，并在 2021 年底将比特币推向历史新高。
比特币交易鲸鱼比率。来源：CryptoQuant
截至 2024 年 10 月，类似的鲸鱼积累模式表明，大持有者正在为潜在的价格上涨做好准备，CryptoQuant 分析师 Woominkyu 指出：
“他们（鲸鱼）可能会从下一次比特币减半后潜在的长期价格上涨中受益。”
第三个指标关注稳定币的主导地位。市场分析师Doctor Magic指出，自2024年中期以来，USDT、USDC和DAI等稳定币的主导地位稳步下降。
从历史上看，当资本开始从稳定币中流出时，它就是包括比特币在内的顶级加密货币价格大幅上涨的先兆，如下所示。
稳定币市值（黑色）对比BTC/USD（绿色）周线图。来源：Doctor Magic
换句话说，稳定币主导地位的下降表明投资者预计比特币相对于比特币的价值将会升值。美元走强，反映出市场风险偏好和信心不断增强。
如果这种趋势持续下去，这可能有力地证明，随着更多的流动性回流到比特币，推动其价格走高，比特币的抛物线阶段已经开始。
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