作者：Krisztian Sandor，CoinDesk；编译：邓通，金色财经
比特币 (BTC) 在过去一个月内暴跌了 15%，许多市场观察人士将责任归咎于比特币挖矿运营商的抛售压力、Mt. Gox 还款以及最近的德国卖币。
NYDIG 研究主管 Greg Cipolaro 在周三的一份报告中表示，上述催化剂是价格大幅下跌背后的原因，这种说法被夸大了。
“虽然情绪和心理可能会在短期内占主导地位，但我们的分析表明，潜在抛售对价格的影响可能被夸大了，”他写道。
“我们并非没有意识到其他因素可能在起作用，但有理由认为，理性的投资者可能会发现这是由非理性恐惧创造的有趣机会，”他补充道。
在过去几周里，投资者一直关注与已倒闭交易所 Mt. Gox、美国政府和德国萨克森州相关的比特币地址的转账，引发了人们对这三个实体持有的价值超过 200 亿美元的储备即将被出售的担忧。
即使它们同时出售所有资产（截至 6 月 9 日约为 375,000BTC），Cipolaro 发现，过去几周 BTC 的价格跌幅也比基于彭博交易成本分析（TCA）的股票价格跌幅要大。TCA 是传统市场长期以来用于评估普通股大宗销售价格影响的常用指标。
大宗销售与股票销售相比对价格影响的估计（NYDIG）
Cipolaro 还认为，最近关于矿工在今年减半事件后集体抛售 BTC 储备的报道不仅被夸大了，而且在某些情况下完全不准确。
NYDIG 的数据显示，上市矿业公司实际上在 6 月份增加了比特币持有量。虽然上个月 BTC 的销售量略有回升，但仍远低于今年早些时候和去年的水平。
公共矿工持有的 BTC（NYDIG）
Cipolaro 建议不要依赖区块链数据来判断矿工转移资产，除非他们了解这些交易的性质。“即使正确识别出比特币转移到交易所或场外交易柜台，也只能告诉我们比特币已经转移。仅此而已，”他辩称。“它们可能被用作抵押品或借出，不一定被出售。”
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