Trump Gains Ground as Harris’ Odds Wane on Polymarket

Election betting trends on Polymarket reveal a significant shift in favour of Republican candidate Donald Trump, with his odds of winning the November election rising to 53%. This change comes as Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, sees her chances drop to 47% from an earlier 50/50 position.

Trump's Changing Odds and Crypto Stance: From 'Scam' to Pro-Bitcoin Support

Trump's odds had peaked at 71% in July but fell to 44% in August following President Joe Biden's announcement of his non-candidacy, which initially boosted Harris’s prospects. Despite Harris’s brief period as the frontrunner, her support among Polymarket traders has dwindled, while Trump's has rebounded, placing him back in the lead.

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Trump's recent pro-crypto stance contrasts sharply with his 2021 dismissal of cryptocurrencies as a "scam." In July, he spoke at a Bitcoin conference in Nashville, expressing support for the BTC mining sector and recently releasing a new set of NFTs branded as “crypto president.”

Trump's Crypto Appeal: Gaining Ground Among Cryptocurrency Investors While Harris Leads Non-Investors

Trump’s appeal to cryptocurrency investors appears to be gaining traction. A recent FDU poll shows Trump leading Harris by 12 percentage points (50% to 38%) among likely voters who own crypto or related assets. In contrast, Harris maintains a 12-point lead (53% to 41%) among those who do not own crypto. This suggests that Trump's engagement with the crypto community is resonating strongly with this demographic.

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Dan Cassino, a professor at Fairleigh Dickinson University, noted that Trump’s outreach to the crypto community has been effective. He commented, “Trump has been reaching out to the crypto community, and it seems to have paid off. Historically, Republicans have struggled to connect with younger and more diverse voters, but support for cryptocurrencies could be a key factor in shifting this dynamic.”