QCP: Increased macro market volatility may trigger risk-averse behavior for all assets, including cryptocurrencies

QCP Capital said in its latest analysis report that the current macro volatility has increased. With the retreat of the Magnificent 7 Index, the Nasdaq Index has fallen 10% from its peak. Several factors have exacerbated market uncertainty: 1. Value-at-risk (VaR) shocks. Risk management companies are forcing traders to cut their positions. Increased selling leads to lower prices, which in turn leads to increased volatility in a feedback loop; 2. Stock valuations are high and earnings targets are high. When companies fail to meet their targets, participants begin to reset their forecasts for the future. Microsoft's recently announced AI cloud revenue was lower than expected, causing its stock price to fall 8% after hours; 3. Global risk aversion. Despite the recent weakness of the US dollar, AUDUSD and NZDUSD collapsed. Commodities such as oil and copper have fallen 10-15% this month due to growing concerns about a global economic slowdown. It expects volatility to increase before tonight's FOMC meeting. The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates, and more attention should be paid to the Fed's statement and Powell's subsequent speech. The base case is to expect one downward revision each in September and December, remaining wary of deviations from current expectations, which would trigger risk-off behavior in all assets, including cryptocurrencies. This scenario could indicate that the Fed sees increased economic challenges. In the crypto space, the market finally saw a net inflow of $33.7 million into the ETH spot ETF. This gave a much-needed boost to the price of ETH, which has been lagging behind Bitcoin over the past month. Nonetheless, outflows are expected to continue in the next two weeks. Recently, the U.S. government transferred 30,000 bitcoins from the dark web Silk Road, bringing uncertainty to the cryptocurrency market.