Bitcoin miners might sell off approximately $5 billion worth of BTC following the halving event.

Analyst Predicts Potential $5 Billion BTC Outflow

According to market analyst Markus Thielen, there could be a substantial outflow of Bitcoin from miners in the months post-halving, following a pattern seen in previous cycles. Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, calculates that Bitcoin miners might liquidate approximately $5 billion worth of BTC after the upcoming halving, as mentioned in an April 13 analyst note.

"The overhang from this selling could last four to six months, explaining why Bitcoin might go sideways for the next few months — as it has done following past halvings," Thielen added.

Thielen predicts that crypto markets could face a significant challenge during a potential six-month 'summer' lull. In the five months following the 2020 halving, Bitcoin prices remained range-bound between $9,000 and $11,500.

This year's halving is expected around April 20, just six days away, potentially delaying any significant upward trajectory in markets until around October, according to historical patterns.

Source: 10x Research

Moreover, Thielen notes that miners typically stock up on BTC leading up to the halving, creating a supply/demand imbalance and subsequently driving Bitcoin prices higher. This trend has already been observed in 2024, with BTC prices surging 74% to an all-time high of $73,734 on March 14 before correcting to below $63,000 in mid-April.

Thielen also anticipates that altcoins, in particular, could suffer amid this situation, with many experiencing significant declines over the past week and remaining far from their 2021 peaks.

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"Even if there is a correlation between the halving and an altcoin rally, as some predict, historical evidence shows that the rally typically begins almost six months later."

Thielen suggests that Marathon, the world's largest Bitcoin miner, has likely built an inventory to be gradually sold post-halving to avoid a revenue cliff. With Marathon currently producing 28-30 BTC per day, this could result in an additional 133 days of supply hitting the market, alongside the BTC they produce, which would be 14-15 BTC per day post-halving.

Source: 10x Research

"Other miners will likely follow a similar strategy to liquidate part of their inventory gradually."

Thielen concludes that if all miners adopt a similar strategy to sell inventory post-halving, "this could result in a maximum of $104 million of BTC selling per day — reversing the supply/demand imbalance that caused BTC to rally pre-halving."

Last week, Marathon CEO Peter Thiel mentioned that the firm's break-even rate would be about $46,000 per BTC to remain profitable post-halving, predicting minimal price movements in the six months following the event.