Kamala Harris Matches Trump in Presidential Betting Odds on Polymarket

Vice President Kamala Harris is now tied with former President Donald Trump at 49% in the betting odds for the next U.S. president on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket. This pool has attracted over $541 million in bets, making it the site's largest betting pool.

Recent Developments

Harris's odds rose sharply after she named Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, surprising Polymarket users who had favoured Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Currently, Harris and Walz are campaigning in Michigan alongside Trump's running mate, J.D. Vance.

Shift in Odds

Harris’s odds have increased steadily since July 21, following President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race due to health concerns. At that time, Harris’s odds were at 30%, while Trump’s stood at 64%. Biden's odds had plummeted to 7% amidst widespread rumours of his withdrawal.

Prediction Markets vs. Polls

Prediction markets like Polymarket are often considered more reflective of market sentiment than traditional polls, as they involve participants who are financially invested in the outcomes. However, Polymarket’s user base is heavily skewed towards crypto enthusiasts, using the Ethereum blockchain's Polygon layer-2 scaling solution. The platform's odds react quickly to news events, such as the recent assassination attempt on Trump.

Influence of Advisors

Polymarket has recently onboarded prominent statistician Nate Silver as an advisor. Silver, known for his work with the polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight (now owned by ABC and rebranded as 538), brings additional credibility and analytical depth to the platform.

Increased Activity

Polymarket has seen a surge in activity and popularity, driven by the intense interest in the U.S. presidential race. In July alone, the platform facilitated $387 million in trading volume, tripling June’s volume. By the first week of August, trades had already reached $130 million.