Memecoin Supercycle: A Revolution That Subverts Traditional Crypto Narratives

Author: MiX Source: X, @MixWeb3

TL;DR

1. The era of synchronous rise of crypto assets is over;

2. The super cycle of Memecoin has begun, and it is now;

3. Any crypto asset that does not distribute cash flow to your wallet and cannot be used as a means of storing value is Memecoin;

4. The cryptocurrency industry is not a technology-first industry, but an asset-first industry;

5. Memecoin is not a vampire attack on encryption technology, but a counterattack against traditional Crpyto Token;

I really started to think about Memecoin in April 24, because at that time, the father of Runes Casey@rodarmor gave a definition for Runes: Runes were built for degens and memecoins. Runes were born for Memecoins. Later, I gave a presentation in Hong Kong titled "Runes｜Bringing Memes Back to Bitcoin": On the one hand, I think the Runes protocol will become the first standard for the issuance of Memecoins in the entire Crypto world; on the other hand, I found that the connotation of Meme is expanding, growing and evolving, from "speculation" to a "Growth strategy" and becoming a carrier of "social movement". In the future, Memecoin may take the lead in doing things, attracting the public to do financial pricing for consensus, and after the survival of the fittest consolidates the community, do interesting and valuable things, which in turn can empower Memecoins. This is not in line with the saying "Memecoin is the business card of an ecosystem", the subtext is that without Memecoin, it is likely that this ecosystem will not even have enough basic community consensus.

Vitalik has also extended and thought about the value of Memecoin⬇️, and his vision is very high.

Yesterday Vitalik was still talking about the hope that Memecoins can bring positive utility to the world.

Today's main text "The Memecoin Supersycle" is Murad's speech at the just-concluded Singapore TOKEN 2049 conference⬇️

Since the video was released, it has been 10 days since the YouTube playback volume reached 26,000, and the X post has been exposed more than 1.2 million times. Under such potential energy, Memecoin really has the opportunity to become an important practice in exploring new economic models and promoting social progress.

The following is the full text of the speech, Enjoy~

Meme coins have set off a frenzy in the cryptocurrency market, so the super cycle of meme coins is not just a prediction of the future, but has actually happened.

When we comb through the performance of all major cryptocurrency categories so far this year, you will find that they are mixed, with many disappointing tokens, but as shown in the figure above: Meme coins have performed very well.

Currently, the old memecoins are doing well, while the new memecoins are doing exceptionally well. The days of all crypto assets rising in sync are over, the “we’ll get there” narrative is outdated, and this is a natural step in the evolution of the space.

As you can see in the chart above, you’ll see that only 43 tokens have outperformed Bitcoin so far this year, and 13 of the top 20 are memecoins.

# Why do memecoin cycles occur?

There are two driving factors behind the cycle of meme coins, one is from the internal reasons of the crypto field, and the other is external reasons. First, let's look at the factors within the crypto field.

1. Overproduction of tokens: In 2024, by April alone, 600,000 new tokens had been launched on the market, with more than 5,500 new tokens added every day. This excess production has flooded the market with a large number of new tokens, resulting in severe dilution of the value of many projects.

2. Severely inflated valuations of altcoins: When these tokens are listed on centralized exchanges, their valuations are artificially inflated. Founders get tokens at almost zero cost, VCs and angel investors buy a large percentage of tokens at very low prices, and then centralized exchanges, market makers, Twitter influencers, Telegram group callers, YouTubers, etc., all promote projects by obtaining tokens or money. Ultimately, retail investors become the source of liquidity when these projects exit, and when you launch a project with a valuation of up to $10 billion, retail investors are the ones who are sold off.

3. Price increase during the private placement phase: The vast majority of altcoin price increases occur during the private placement phase. By the time the token is actually launched, the valuation has often reached the level of $500 million, $1 billion, or even $1.5 billion, and retail investors have almost no chance to profit from it. They are just attracted into this bubble at the high point of the token price.

I firmly believe that these tokens were deliberately brought to market at extremely high initial valuations when they were listed, so that even if the token price inevitably plummeted by 90% in the early stage, seed investors could still make hundreds of times the profit, while retail investors were misled into thinking that these tokens were sold at a "discount price".

Of all the new tokens launched on Binance in 2024, with two exceptions, every project fell. One exception is Whiff, which has barely grown since its listing, and the other is Jupiter, which is closely related to the trading infrastructure of memecoins. These facts send a strong signal: most newly issued altcoin projects are not performing well.

# Problems in the industry

Without retail capital inflows, the entire token market cannot be sustained, but the vast majority of retail investors never care about technology.

Even though we have been using smart contract technology for more than a decade, there are still very few non-speculative decentralized applications (dApps) that can succeed in this industry. If you look at projects like Uniswap, dYdX, GMX, and Solana, these may be the projects with the highest product-market fit in the history of cryptocurrency, but they rely almost entirely on speculation. 99% of altcoins are not worth their valuations, and many projects do not pay dividends, and they often claim that it is due to regulatory reasons, but in fact, it is not in their interest.

Some projects may only have $500 in daily fee revenue, but their valuations are as high as billions of dollars. This phenomenon is very common, and these infrastructure tokens are obviously not a means of storing value for money.

The value of these tokens often relies on narratives, imitation effects, and market hype, and the market does not tend to value these tokens based on actual revenue.

# The unique advantages of meme coins

In contrast, meme coins have their own unique advantages. Meme coins do not need to rely on complex valuation models or actual revenue to support market capitalization like traditional technology tokens. Their advantage is simplicity and directness - the token itself is the product. Meme coins are not an attack on crypto technology, but a counterattack against crypto technology tokens. Meme coins and altcoins are actually promoting the same thing - the token itself, not the technology behind it.

Memecoins are the spiritual embodiment of the ICO wave in 2017, but they appear in a new and purer form. They represent a more direct community economy that does not rely on complex technical narratives, but instead uses simple and easy-to-understand methods to attract the market.

Many venture-backed technology projects are overvalued and lack real community support. Memecoins use the community to build a strong brand and loyalty, allowing the project to continue operating. In contrast, venture capital projects rely on private placements and high valuations to drive the market, while memecoins benefit from the gathering of community power and become loyal supporters.

# External environment push

In addition to internal factors in the industry, the external environment is also driving the development of memecoins. Today's global economy is very different from four years ago. Inflation is rising rapidly, and the prices of everyday goods are also continuing to rise. The rapid development of artificial intelligence has even threatened employment opportunities in traditional STEM disciplines, and wealth inequality has reached a record high. Especially outside of developed countries, the situation is even worse

The increase in loneliness, sexual repression and mental health problems has prompted more and more people to turn to the virtual world to find a sense of belonging and meaning. In this context, memecoins have become their choice. People are not only looking for wealth in memecoins, but also for fun, identity and belonging.

# The Power of Narrative and Culture

Memecoin is essentially a Swiss Army Knife, offering a range of products, it provides identity, culture, escape, reduced loneliness, community, hope and much more. I believe religion is losing influence in the world and brands, experiences and communities are filling the gap. You can already see this in video games, music festivals, yoga, DMT retreats, CrossFit, SoulCycle, ketogenic diets and of course financial assets.

Trends need narratives to support them, and behind the success of memecoins are stories about people making huge gains through simple means, which continue to spread throughout the industry and social media. For example, Pepe, Bonk, and Whiff have become several successful examples in this cycle. These stories have given new life to memecoins and are driving the market to continue to develop.

History tells us that assets that perform well in the first half of a cryptocurrency cycle tend to continue to perform well in the second half. For example, Ethereum surged in 2016 and surged twice in 2017; Verge surged in 2016 and surged again in 2017; Solana surged in 2020 and rebounded strongly again in 2021. Therefore, I believe that the memecoin boom we experienced in March 2024 is just the first of three waves, followed by two larger surges in 2025.

# Market Positioning of MemeCoins

The success of memecoins is not just due to speculation. They represent a more organic market model that enables ordinary investors to gain wealth by holding tokens. Memecoins have turned investors who would have found it difficult to make a profit in other markets into loyal evangelists, driving the spread of the entire project.

The future of memecoins lies in the fact that they are not just speculative tools, but a new economic form - a tokenized community. The best memecoins will become long-lasting brands and cultural symbols that represent not only wealth but also an identity.

# The Future of Memecoins

The memecoin supercycle has begun and it will continue to grow. I predict that memecoins will reach a market cap of $1 trillion and that a quarter of the top 20 on CoinMarketCap will be memecoins. Utility tokens and venture-backed altcoins will continue to underperform over time, while memecoins will continue to dominate the market.

Memecoins are not only a market phenomenon, they represent a new model for community economies. Their simplicity, ease of understanding, and high level of engagement make them the most dynamic and growth-potential assets in the cryptocurrency industry. If you want to seize the next big opportunity, memecoins are undoubtedly an area to keep your eyes on.

To summarize, memecoins are simpler than tech altcoins, more liquid than NFTs, more secure than DeFi, they have no inflation, no unlocks, no VCs dumping money on you, your odds are better than sports betting or casinos, more volatility (aka more exciting), it’s a fresher narrative, it gives retail investors a chance to win, and the community is more passionate than any other crypto asset class. The best crypto products don’t need tokens, the best crypto tokens don’t need products. Again, the memecoin cycle is not a prediction, it’s already happening, memecoins dominate on every metric, every metric.

So predictions: memecoins will hit $1 trillion in market cap; you will see 2 memecoins with market caps over $100 billion; you will see 10 memecoins with market caps over $10 billion; a quarter of the front page of CoinMarketCap will be memecoins; memecoins will have 10% dominance; Utilities and VC-backed altcoins will continue to underperform; the "fat protocol" theory will slowly die as it becomes harder to build stores of value and casinos (number 4 and 5); VCs will buy blue chip memecoins, as smart VCs are already doing; traditional finance will buy memecoins, as smart traditional finance is already doing; you will see hyper-memecoinization before hyper-bitcoinization; a lot of people are talking about faith economics, the tokenization of faith, and the new religion of financialization.