September Outlook: In-depth analysis of key tracks and targets

Author: Sleeping in the Rain Source: X, sleepintherain

September is still a dangerous month for me, and I will not consider making too many transactions (currently short).

Wait.

This article aims to describe the tracks and targets that I will focus on in September from my personal perspective in a simpler and more precise language.

TLDR

1. Optimistic about the $BTC ecosystem, BTC staking, wBTC competitors ($T) and inscriptions/runes ($SATS $ORDI), as well as $RUNE;

2. Optimistic about DeFi's Uniswap v4 $UNI, which is the most important catalyst for the current DeFi ecosystem. ($COW is also doing some small moves); 3. The cold reception of Solana ecosystem may give us an opportunity to buy at the bottom. I think $JTO $CLOUD $DRIFT $KMNO are good targets. Let's see which one can attract market attention; 4. Be cautious when considering RWA targets. $MPL and $CPOOL are two projects worth paying attention to; 5. MakerDAO's name change has given the market an opportunity to speculate, and may also be good for $LQTY; 6. CZ's release from prison is a good expectation for $BNB; 7. Pendle is moving closer to BTCFi; 1/ BTC ecosystem

The following three things are mainly related to the BTC ecosystem:

• The "market interest in $BTC staking" triggered by Bayblon is, to put it bluntly, a nesting doll;

• At a time when wBTC is widely questioned, opportunities for other younger brothers: 1) Coinbase launches $cbBTC; 2) Former younger brother Threshold $tBTC has gained huge room for growth; 3) Cross-chain adoption of Stack sBTC after Satoshi Nakamoto's upgrade, etc.

P.S. In the future, the competition among various types of packaged BTC will become more and more fierce, and the market may pay attention to cross-chain protocols that support native BTC, such as Thorchain $RUNE. Also, tBTC operator Threshold proposed a merger with wBTC, but I don't think it is realistic.

• Fractal Bitcoin, the Bitcoin extension network, is scheduled to launch its mainnet on September 9. This expected market is buying orders, which is good for the BRC20 ecosystem, and runes will also receive attention at that time (not directly good).

(If there is anything I haven't mentioned, please add it)

2/ DeFi

Recently, many people have been nursing old DeFi projects, such as $AAVE (Aave's recent fundamentals are very good).

It should be pointed out that although Aave has made a lot of plans for future token economics some time ago, I think it will still take a long time for these plans to be realized. In addition, Aave hopes to maintain the peg of GHO to the US dollar by integrating BlackRock BUIDL.

Recently, I will pay special attention to $UNI. From the announcement on August 15 that Uniswap Labs will cooperate with Uniswap Foundation and Cantina to launch a V4 security competition with a prize pool of 2.35 million US dollars, Uniswap v4 will be launched soon (previously expected to be launched in Q3). The importance of Uniswap v4 has been analyzed by many people, so I will not repeat it. I will find an article for you to read: https://www.techflowpost.com/article/detail_12252.html

I think the launch of Uniswap v4 is of great significance and is the most important catalyst for the DeFi ecosystem at present (and it seems that no one in the Chinese area is talking about it now).

It is also worth mentioning that Cow Protocol may also be aware of the threat of Uniswap v4 and is working with Wintermute to seek CEX Lists and better liquidity on the chain.

3/ Solana

The most interesting thing in the Solana ecosystem is memecoin. You can take a look at the memecoins that English KOLs are talking about on Shill. You can follow my List: https://x.com/i/lists/1795371206344130752

The second are the most profitable protocols in the Solana ecosystem, such as Jito $JTO / Raydium $RAY / Jupiter $JUP / Banana $BANANA

and some other applications that have captured market attention/liquidity: Drift $DRIFT / Kamino $KMNO / Sanctum $CLOUD

Here are some of the tokens on my watch list:

• Jito —— closely related to the prosperity of the Solana ecosystem;

• Sanctum —— LST liquidity layer, CEX recently entered the $SOL Staking is a positive for it;

Here is a more detailed description: https://x.com/alphawifhat/status/1829428266580812192

• Kamino - Solana's liquidity layer, accounting for 28% of Solana's total TVL.

• Banana - The only TG Bot listed on Binance (except Bonk).

Here is another idea of ​​mine: With the market's aversion to VC infrastructure tokens last time, memecoin has become the new darling of the market. When the market gradually returns to rationality, fully circulated application tokens and application tokens with a large amount of real cash income may become the next hype concept in the market (I don't mean to say that meme is bad). I hope it is not my wishful thinking.

4/ RWA (please consider RWA-related targets with caution)

As I mentioned in my August Outlook, I like the Maple project very much. Now I will update you on the new progress of Maple.

1) Maple's fundamental data is growing well;