Everyone thinks September is going to be a bad month, but as usual, most crypto traders are wrong about what’s coming next.

Yes, I know we’re off to a bad start, but that doesn’t mean it’s all over. If you look at Twitter and YouTube right now, you’ll see this chart that shows how bad September is.

I even tweeted this chart recently, but the predictions are getting wilder and wilder.

Some people think we’ll fall back to 45,000 in September, but you’re smart enough to know what happens to crypto when everyone expects the same thing.

Market manipulators are the exact opposite, which is why today I’m going to break down what I think is going to happen next and how I can take advantage of this.

I’m going to share some crazy things about altcoins that 99% of the market is completely ignoring.

This is alpha that you can only see here and it might change your mind about the bull run. So make sure to read to the end. Let’s get started.

Bitcoin Price History – When Did the Crypto Bull Run Start?

Let’s get one thing out of the way first.

Yes. Bitcoin went from $15,000 to $74,000. Yes, it broke its all-time high. Yes, technically the bull run has already begun.

But I’m not talking about a bull run. I’m talking about a crazy crypto bull run. Only went up for a year. The kind we had in 2021 and 2017.

The real bull run.

When does it start?

Well, first let's talk about what the start looks like, because it's different than what most people think. Most people think it starts with a giant green candle. Altcoins go up 2x, 5x, even 10x.

But the start is boring.

The truth is, it goes slow at first. First, the market moves sideways, sometimes even down. Then it levels off, and we start to see subtle signs of a bottom.

Then boom!

God candles are lit everywhere and everyone is saying "I hope I bought the bottom." "

Bitcoin bottoming? Market showing bullish signs

While everyone is talking about the bearish trend in September, I think we are seeing subtle signs of a bottom forming and not the drop to 45k that some were predicting.

Let's look at a few of those signs.

1. ➣ First Golden Cross in Bitcoin's history.

In traditional markets, these crossovers are seen as bullish signals. ”Now, there are no guarantees with a crossover, but I must point out that this is the first time in history that this has happened.

Speaking of history. It appears that we are seeing history repeat itself right now.

I have talked about seasonal markets before.

It is normal for financial markets to fall in the summer because traders are on vacation. The summer is almost always bearish. As the summer ends, everyone returns from vacation. Things tend to become bullish again.

Now September is a transition month between Q3 and Q4, which is why bottoms are usually solidified in September. At least for Bitcoin.

We will discuss altcoin bottoming later. For now, let’s focus on Bitcoin’s bottoming in September.

Here is a great example.

A year ago, Bitcoin was exactly like it is now. Bitcoin hit a low in mid-September and then started to rise in October.

History may be repeating itself, it is not uncommon for September to start poorly and then recover. Or it may go sideways until October.

This is by no means a bullish month, but it is also not a month known for massive crashes. It is a month known for bottoming. We can also zoom out and look at this pattern more broadly.

After the past two halvings, Bitcoin went sideways in the third quarter, but more specifically, the bottom was solidified in September and then Bitcoin broke out in the fourth quarter.

Everything that is happening now in crypto has happened in the past two cycles.

This is what we want to see, as it reduces the likelihood of a massive nuclear explosion pulling oil prices down to the early $50s, or even the early $40s.

This suggests a continuation of the overall range, consistent with September. Furthermore, we are entering a bear trap period.

Again, this is consistent with the bottoming in September. So we are seeing signs of a bottom in Bitcoin right now. While this doesn't mean it can't fall further, it does suggest that the overall trend may be turning. This makes sense.

3. Most importantly, look at what happens in September. A September rate cut by Powell is almost certain.

We are now two weeks away from a first-rate cut. If you don't know why this matters, it's actually a lot simpler than most people think.

I'll break it down for you.

When interest rates are higher, investors can earn good returns by investing in safe asset classes such as bonds. I mean, if you can earn 5% or even 10% on a government-backed bond, why take so much risk?

Makes sense.

But when interest rates are cut sharply, investors turn to riskier assets like stocks or cryptocurrencies to get higher returns. That's why lower interest rates can lead to higher cryptocurrency prices.

Now, the Fed typically cuts rates for one of two reasons: to respond to a deflationary shock or to respond to easing inflation. Historically, the second scenario almost always leads to a big risk appetite rebound, i.e. a rally in risky markets like stocks or cryptocurrencies.

This is one of the biggest refutations of the extremely bearish September theory.

But it's not just macroeconomics. September was packed with cryptocurrency conferences.

Three Crypto Conferences in September -

We have three conferences this month.

• Korea Blockchain Week is Underway

• Token 2049 Singapore Meetup

• Solana Breakpoint 2024

This is important because projects shared a lot of good news at the conferences and generated a lot of hype.

Bitcoin Bottom Signals - BTC August vs. September Returns

Bitcoin is giving some bottoming signals. Macroeconomic conditions are good and September is a peak alpha month for crypto.

But the fact is that historically, September is the worst month for cryptocurrencies.

But is it?

Now I don’t blame anyone for sharing this Coinglass chart and saying September is the most pessimistic month, because in terms of September closes, it is the most pessimistic month.

However, if you take a second longer to look at the numbers, you’ll see that Bitcoin had two standout bullish runs in August. One was in 2013 and the other was in 2017, both of which were deviations from the average. In fact, August’s gains were more brutal than September’s - last year’s September losses were 17%, 18%, 9%, 13%, and 11%, respectively.

If you look at every September since the 2017 bull run, most have been -7% or less. So once more bear markets hit September, they won’t actually be that brutal.

If we see a fairly normal -7% drop in September, Bitcoin would only drop to $55,000.

What a big deal.

It was $48,000 a few weeks ago. $55,000 is a piece of cake for us. Even if we look at the worst September drop in recent history, which was 13% in 2019. That’s still above $48,000 and still in range.

But honestly, since everyone expected a big drop in September and we are already seeing signs of a bottom, I wouldn’t be surprised if these drops are only temporary and it ends up being a slightly bearish month. Or who knows? After the rate cut, it might even be a bullish month.

Good News for Altcoins – Bitcoin Pumps and Altcoins Follow

Now let’s talk about a very important thing about altcoins that almost everyone ignores. They probably ignore it because they feel it is bad news. But to be honest, I think it is good news.

So, while Bitcoin usually surges in the fourth quarter after the halving and everyone is super happy, historically only some altcoins follow Bitcoin. And arguably, the most important altcoins did not follow.

The vast majority, if not all, of these cycle-defining altcoins did not rally along with Bitcoin in Q4 2020.

What needs to be remembered is that historically, the next two quarters are when Bitcoin and altcoins bottom. Historically, this is a period when trends reverse and we enter the rally season we are all desperately hoping for.

And this time around, we have something special happening in Q4 that I believe will make this period a little better for altcoins.

FTX Payouts Finally Start

16 Billion FTX Payouts Start — What Happened to FTX?

FTX was one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges ever. When it collapsed, users of the exchange lost over $16 billion.

In Q4, that $16 billion will start to be repaid to creditors, and it will be in USD. Think about what this means.

They are bringing degradation to crypto…

$16 billion in Q4.

During the period we just identified, the market historically emerged from the post-halving shock and began to rise vertically to a new all-time high.

Can you guess what these "altcoin investors" will do with all this money?

Yes, you guessed it!