Harris's Odds Surge to 43% on Polymarket Following Trump’s NABJ Panel, with $467 Million Wagered

Kamala Harris’s odds on Polymarket have risen to 45% following Donald Trump’s recent appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) panel. This increase reflects growing interest and bets on the US presidential race, with Polymarket's total wagered volume reaching $467 million, up from $364 million the previous week.

Due to the surge in betting activity, Polymarket has upgraded its infrastructure, including integrating MoonPay to manage the increased volume and facilitate crypto transactions. The platform allows users to place bets on various election outcomes, and recent events have amplified its use.

Polymarket odds for US elections 2024 (Polymarket)

Trump’s Declining Lead

Trump’s lead has decreased significantly. His odds of winning have dropped from 60% over the past 24 hours and a peak of 72% on July 16, to 55% currently. Harris’s chance, conversely, opened at 37% on July 31 and has climbed to 43%, marking her highest odds since entering the race.

Polymarket odd chart for US elections 2024 (Polymarket)

Polling Trends

Recent polls reflect Harris’s improved standing in key swing states. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll shows Harris leading Trump 53%-42% in Michigan, with other polls indicating she is either leading or tied with Trump in states such as Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. This uptick in polling may be influencing Harris’s betting odds on Polymarket.

Trump’s NABJ Panel Impact

The timing of Harris’s odds increase coincides with Trump’s contentious performance at the NABJ panel. Trump faced criticism for his remarks on Harris’s heritage and claimed he was misled about the panel's nature. Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, suggested that Trump’s performance could lead to a drop in his poll numbers.

Crypto Market Correlation

The drop in Trump’s odds has been linked to fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin, which had fallen to $63,700, has since recovered to $64,300 following the FOMC meeting and changes in Trump’s odds. Trump, seen as more Bitcoin-friendly, has had his odds align with Bitcoin’s price trends.