OTC Weekly Trading Insights (10/30/2024)
Top Interest of the WeekSantos FC Fan Token ($SANTOS) experienced a remarkable 100% surge in value on Monday following the announcement of Binance's launch of the SANTOSUSDT Perpetual Contract on Binance Futures, which provides token holders with a fresh trading opportunity. The excitement surrounding $SANTOS remained strong, as evidenced by a 51.4% increase in its price over the past week.Raydium ($RAY) operates as a decentralised exchange on the Solana network, with its prominent trading pools focusing on newer tokens within the ecosystem. The emergence of pump.fun tokens has significantly contributed to the volume on decentralised exchanges, with Raydium facilitating rapid trading of these new assets. As a result of its strategy to adopt newer tokens and enhance liquidity for traders, Raydium's market share has climbed from 7.6% in January to 18.4% in October.Celestia ($TIA) is gaining attention this week as it approaches a significant cliff vesting schedule set to begin on October 30. On that date in 2024, 175.74 million TIA tokens, representing approximately 16.3% of the total supply and 44.3% of the market cap, will be released. Additionally, 996,000 TIA will be unlocked daily over the following year. This substantial influx of tokens is likely to saturate the spot market, potentially driving the TIA price down. While Bitcoin experienced an increase of over 8% this week, TIA saw a sharp decline of 22%, marking the largest drop among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap.Overall Market The above chart shows the BTC price movement in the 8-hour chart across 2024.Our earlier analysis suggested that if the upper trend line remained intact, BTC could see a second surge, potentially reaching $74,000 and achieving a new all-time high by the end of the year. This prediction has been validated, as BTC successfully broke through the upper trend line, retested over the weekend, and continued its climb to the all-time high set in March. This indicates that BTC has completed its seven-month consolidation phase in the blue zone and is ready for the next upward movement.The recent bullish momentum in BTC is largely attributed to the increasing probability that Republicans, who typically favour cryptocurrency, are gaining ground in the polls ahead of the US elections. The likelihood of a Republican "clean sweep" is also increasing, which would result in the GOP regaining the presidency and a majority in the US Senate while maintaining control in the House of Representatives.A Republican majority could greatly improve the chances of crypto-related legislation passing in Congress, creating a clearer regulatory environment for crypto businesses. With a more defined framework, the future of cryptocurrency development will become more transparent, potentially attracting more investment from those who have been hesitant about the sector's legitimacy.Next Tuesday marks the US elections, and our team is bracing for significant market volatility during this time. We expect considerable price swings both upward and downward as the votes are tallied. A similar situation occurred in March when Bitcoin peaked at $69,000, the all-time high in the last cycle, and swiftly dropped to $59,000 within a day, resulting in a 14% fluctuation. We anticipate a comparable scenario this time. We advise traders to proceed with caution and consider entering the market once the volatility has settled.Options MarkeThe above chart is the at-the-money implied volatility on BTC options with different durations.This week, even with Bitcoin's price rallying towards its all-time high marked in March, our team noted a significant spike in implied volatility for BTC options set to expire next week. With the US elections taking place next Tuesday, this increase in volatility is widely expected.The upcoming elections are capturing considerable interest within the crypto community as investors and traders seek clarity on the potential passage of crypto-related legislation in Congress. Should former President Donald Trump regain the presidency and Republicans secure control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the crypto sector could finally see a legislative framework established for industry participants. A more regulated and transparent environment would likely foster a healthier investment climate, attracting additional capital to advance developments in the crypto and blockchain sectors.Our team has also observed several calendar spread block trades in the market, with options traders capitalising on the heightened short-term volatility to finance longer-dated options. Additionally, there has been strong demand for downside protection in the near term, particularly for next Friday, November 8, indicating that Bitcoin holders are purchasing puts to mitigate potential risks associated with the US elections.Macro at a glance Last Thursday (24-10-24)US initial jobless claims have shown a continued decline, with a report of 227,000 this week, down from 242,000 the previous week and below the anticipated 243,000. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for October stands at 47.8, surpassing the forecast of 47.5 and the previous month's figure of 47.3. Meanwhile, the S&P Global Services PMI remains robust, recorded at 55.3 in October, exceeding the expected 55.0 and slightly above September's 55.2. New home sales in the US experienced a notable increase of 4.1%, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 738,000 in September, marking the highest level since May 2023.Last Friday (24-10-25)US durable goods orders experienced a decline of 0.8% in September, better than the anticipated 1.0% decrease. Additionally, the figure for August was significantly revised downward from 0.0% to -0.8%.On Tuesday (24-10-29)US consumer confidence, as measured by the CB index, reached 108.7 in October, significantly surpassing the anticipated 99.5 and September's figure of 99.2. With the election approaching, American consumers appear to be optimistic about future expenditures. In contrast, the JOLTS report indicated a notable decline in job openings, with September's total falling to 7.443 million from August's 7.861 million, which was also below the expected 7.980 million. This mixed economic data exerted downward pressure on the US dollar index, causing the DXY to decrease from 104.62 to 104.25 during the US session.On Wednesday (24-10-30)Germany has released its Q3 GDP figures, indicating a quarterly growth of 0.2%, in contrast to a contraction of 0.1% in the previous quarter. The annualised GDP growth for Q3 stands at -0.2%, which is slightly better than the anticipated -0.3%. In October, Germany saw some rebound on inflation. The German CPI showed a monthly increase of 0.4% and an annual growth rate of 2.0%. Both figures surpassed the expected quarterly growth of 0.2% and the annual growth forecast of 1.8%.The pace of economic growth in the United States has decelerated over the summer months, yet the economy continues its two-year expansion. The US GDP increased by 2.8% in the third quarter, falling short of economists' predictions of 3.0%, with consumer spending being the primary driver.The US ADP nonfarm employment change reported an increase of 233,000 jobs in October, exceeding the forecast of 110,000 and surpassing September's figure of 159,000.In the next few days, we have PCE price index data on ThursdayUS nonfarm payroll change and unemployment rate on FridayThe 2024 United States elections next TuesdayConvert Portal Volume ChangeThe above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. BTC was inches away from its all-time high marked in March on Tuesday. In contrast, altcoins lagged behind, as most were far from their peak levels. The bullish momentum of BTC was largely influenced by the growing likelihood that Republicans, known for their favourable stance towards cryptocurrency, were gaining ground in the polls leading up to the US election.In the POW sector, trading activity experienced a significant increase, with trading volume rising by 28.9%. This remarkable growth was primarily driven by heightened trading demand for Bitcoin ($BTC). Similarly, the Payments sector recorded a substantial rise in trading volume, which increased by 26.8%. This surge was also mainly attributed to the robust demand for Bitcoin ($BTC).Additionally, the Solana sector experienced a notable increase in trading volume, which rose by 15.9%, with Raydium ($RAY) playing a pivotal role in this rise in activity.Why trade OTC? Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. Email: [email protected] for more information.Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!
