Where will the price of Bitcoin go? Can the $60,000 support level hold?

Author: YASHU GOLA Source: cointelegraph

The price of Bitcoin continues to fall, down 1.5% intraday and 7.65% over the past week, reaching $62,130 on June 24. The chances of recovering these losses in the coming days seem slim, and several indicators hint at further price declines ahead.

Will Bitcoin Price Drop to $60,000 Next?

Since the March 2024 bull run to a new record high of around $74,000, Bitcoin has been consolidating within a descending parallel channel. Every time Bitcoin tests the upper trendline as resistance, it retreats towards the lower trendline, only to bounce back when it touches that trendline.  

As of June 24, BTC price has experienced a similar situation, pulling back after hitting the upper trendline around $72,000 two weeks ago. BTC/USD is currently heading towards the lower trendline, which aligns with the psychological support level of $60,000.

Interestingly, the downside target of $60,000 is closer to Bitcoin’s 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; blue wave), which is around $58,000. This confluence increases the likelihood that BTC will approach the $58,000-60,000 range in July.

Independent market analyst Teddy Cleps expects Bitcoin to fall towards $61,000 as that level is the 21-week EMA and historical support.   

Cleps believes that "every correction since the start of the BTC bull run has fallen on the 21-week EMA and bounced off it," adding: We are approaching it as we speak, and if history repeats itself, 61k is the bottom. BTC Price to Reach $55,000 Bitcoin’s continued consolidation trend is in line with a prediction made by Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd. founder Michael Novogratz in May that BTC would trade in the $55,000-$75,000 range in the second quarter of 2024. Novogratz expects new market events to push prices higher after the launch of a spot U.S. Bitcoin ETF and the stalling of the Bitcoin halving-driven bull run. Novogratz said strong economic data and fading optimism about the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are reasons for the current market pause. The investor said the $55,000-$75,000 consolidation will continue until the economy slows or there is regulatory clarity after the election.

Double Top Teases $50,000 BTC Price Target

Unlike Novogratz, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen predicts Bitcoin will break out of the consolidation range and fall towards $50,000, citing the possibility of a double top pattern.

A double top pattern forms when the price reaches two similar peaks with a slight decline in the middle, and maintains support above a common line called the “neckline.” The pattern usually disappears when the price breaks below the neckline, and the decline can be equal to the distance between the peak and the neckline.

As we have observed over the past three months, range trading is a complex phase that is often marked by several false breakouts. Historically, topping formations have made ordinary retail investors vulnerable, and many altcoins have experienced significant declines.

Bull Flag Puts BTC on Track for a Rally to $88K

Meanwhile, the descending channel range looks like a classic bull flag pattern, which is a bullish continuation setup that forms after the price consolidates within a downward sloping range following a strong rebound.

Bull flags usually end after the price breaks out of the upper trendline and rises to the height of the previous uptrend. If this bullish scenario materializes, Bitcoin price targets $88,000 (all-time high) as a major upside target in July or August.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index is the most oversold since August 2023. This could be a precursor to a potential recovery period, improving BTC’s chances of reaching a bull flag target.