Bitcoin Halving Date Betting vs. Groundhog Prediction: Choose Your Warriors

Author: Web3 Frontier

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The halving is a historic event , which will cut Bitcoin mining rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, will arrive sometime in April 2024, but the exact date has not yet been determined, at least not until Groundhog Day.

According to various Bitcoin halving countdown trackers, including those from NiceHash and BitcoinBlockHalf.com, the fourth Bitcoin halving may occur in 2024 From April 8th to April 22nd.

It is estimated that the fourth Bitcoin halving may occur in the next 66 to 79 days, depending on the block height, computing power and mining difficulty And other factors.

The Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs every 210,000 blocks and is expected to occur every four years. According to BlockExplorer, the upcoming Bitcoin halving will occur at block 840,000, and at the time of writing, only 11,449 of the current 828,551 blocks remain to be mined.

The problem with estimating the date of the Bitcoin halving through different countdown trackers is that one is unlikely to accurately predict the exact date before the halving actually occurs.

“I think it has to do with how the algorithm interprets the data,” said Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics. He added:

"Such a poetic beat, inscribed by Satoshi Nakamoto. The exact time of the event remains a mystery until the exact moment it occurred."

Main Crypto Similar sentiments were expressed by the Bitcoin community on currency forum BitcoinTalk. Some observers have suggested that estimates are adjusted based on Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustments every two weeks (or, technically, every 2,016 blocks).

According to historical records, Bitcoin’s three halvings have gone through different periods. The first halving event occurred on November 28, 2012, 1,425 days after Bitcoin was launched on January 3, 2009. The second halving event occurred on July 9, 2016, 1,319 days later. The third Bitcoin halving occurred on May 11, 2020, 1,402 days later.

As of this writing, 1,362 days have passed since the last Bitcoin halving occurred on May 11, 2020.

Although it is currently unlikely The exact Bitcoin halving date is estimated, but the community is mainly betting on April 20, 2024, an international counterculture holiday and a meme based on the celebration and consumption of marijuana.

“The expected Bitcoin halving date is April 20. We are living in the best simulation.” One industry observer posted on social media platform X on February 1.

The community has not yet determined whether the spring halving will occur on April 20. The only thing known is that the community should expect an early spring, as Punxsutawney Phil, the groundhog, just predicted.

Phil’s average accuracy over the past decade has reportedly been about 40%.